中国潜在经济增长率估计与货币政策操作空间选择——基于DSGE模型的计量分析

The Potential Economic Growth Rate and the Operation Space of Monetary Policy of China:Measurement Analysis Basedon New Keynesian DSGE Model

本文构建了一个新凯恩斯DSGE模型,使用贝叶斯方法估计潜在经济增长率,根据我国当前的实际经济增长率与适度经济增长区间进行对比,发现实际经济增长率处于适度经济增长区间的下限运行,经济趋于过冷;在"十二五"期间若要达到经济增长率稳步上升至适度增长区间同时又不造成严重通胀的情况,货币供给量增长率区间应保持在14.80%~18.86%。存款准备金率下降至17%~18%较为合理,利率的调控空间较小,预计将至3%左右。

This builds a new Keynesian DSGE model.Using Bayesian methods to estimate the potential economic growth rate,we argue the average is 7.39%.By contingency tables,we hold the moderate interval of the economic growth is[7.39%,10.39%];Comparing the moderate economic growth interval with the actual economic growth rate,we find the real economic growth rate runs in the lower limit of the moderate economic growth range,and the economy tends to be too cold;After 2012,if China intends to achieve steady economic growth rate in a moderate growth range without causing serious inflation,money supply increase rate interval should reach[14.80%,18.86%]billion,The deposit reserve rate should be decreased to[17%,18%].The interest rate has a small regulation space and it is expected to approach 3%.