中国消费过度波动的因素分析

Factor Analysis of Excess Volatility of Consumption in China

中国消费一直处于过度波动状态,本文将影响家庭消费波动放大的三种因素:信贷约束、政府消费冲击和偏好冲击引入经济周期模型中。通过数值模拟发现,政府消费冲击是影响中国消费过度波动的最重要原因。此外,加法可分的GHH偏好设定形式下,数值模拟结果明显优于乘法可分的CD偏好形式。

Since the initiation of the reform and opening-up policy,the business cycle in China has been characterized with the excess volatility of consumption.In this paper,we add three amplification mechanisms of consumption volatility in the basic real business model:credit constraint,government consumption shock and preference shock.Based on simulation results,government consumption shock is a momentous source of consumption fluctuation.In addition,we find that the result of simulation in the GHH preference framework is better than CD preference.