行业现金分红压力、股价波动与现金分红决策

Cash Dividend Distribution Pressure in Industry,Stock Price Volatility and Cash Dividend Decision:an Experimental Evidence

上市公司的现金分红决策行为是资本市场中一个十分重要的问题。本文从行为研究的视角,基于心理学理论并采用实验研究方法,分析和检验了行业现金分红压力、股价波动程度对公司管理层现金分红决策的影响。研究发现,行业现金分红压力和股价波动影响了管理层的现金分红决策。进一步发现,股价波动对行业现金分红压力的影响具有调节作用,当股价波动程度较小时,在行业现金分红压力较高的情况下,管理层进行现金分红的可能性更大,但当公司股价波动程度较大时,无论行业现金分红压力高低,管理层进行现金分红的可能性差异不显著。同时还发现了管理层考虑股价波动对现金分红决策影响的具体路径。

Cash dividend decision of the listed companies is a very important issue in capital market.From the view of behavioral research,this paper uses psychological theory and experimental method to analyze and examine the effects of the cash dividend distribution pressure in the industry and the magnitude of stock price volatility on managers' cash dividend decision.The results show that the cash dividend distribution pressure in the industry and the magnitude of stock price volatility affect managers' cash dividend decision.We further find the moderating effect of stock price volatility on cash dividend distribution pressure in the industry.When the magnitude of stock price volatility is lower,the probability of managers distributing cash dividend is higher in the higher cash dividend distribution pressure in the industry.However,when the magnitude of stock price volatility is higher,there is no significant difference in the probability of managers distributing cash dividend regardless of the cash dividend distribution pressure in the industry.Meanwhile,we also find the specific path for managers in considering the effects of stock price volatility on cash dividend decisions.