温州融资关系网络的结构特征、风险传导与传染效应:基于动态理论模型的分析

Analysis on the Risk Contagion Effect of Wenzhou Financing Relationship Based on the Dynamic Theory Model

与以往文献中认为温州融资关系网络不稳定的判断不同,数据研究表明温州的融资关系网络并不是积聚成块,而是存在大小不等的派系,具有结构性阻断风险传播的功能。借助风险传染的动态理论模型与PAJEK、MATLAB软件对温州上市公司及其合作伙伴的数据进行仿真测算,同时还利用问卷调查将温州某民营企业集团的融资关系网络作为个案进行验证。研究发现,当融资关系网络内的企业发生个体风险的时候,网络的传染比率处于低位水平,融资关系网络的结构是稳定的;"中心企业"在温州融资关系网络中起着风险控制作用。因此在正常情况下,温州的以血缘亲缘等为基础的融资关系网络结构是稳健的。

Different from the previous judgement that Wenzhou financing relationship network is instable,the research data shows that Wenzhou financing relationship network does not accumulate into a block,but ranging from the size of the factions,and also with the function of blocking risk.With the aid of the risk of infection of the dynamic theory model and PAJEK,MATLAB software to Wenzhou listed company and its partners(239)data,this paper carried the simulation calculation;at the same time,it used a questionnaire to investigate a private enterprise group(113)'s financing relationship network as a case to verify.The study found that:When the enterprises in financing relationship network encounter individual risks,the network's transmission ratio is at a low level,and the structure of the financing relationship network is stable;'Central enterprises'play a role in risk control in the Wenzhou financing relationship network.So under normal circumstances,the structure of Wenzhou's financial relationship network,which is based on blood relationship,is robust.Finally,the article proposes to establish bank credit guarantee with mutual aid system and the'central enterprises'based on the acquaintance network.