贸易开放、法治环境与金融发展:69个国家面板数据的PVAR分析

Trade Openness,Legal Environment and Financial Development——PVAR Analysis Based on 69 Countries' Panel Data

本文基于面板向量自回归模型运用69个国家2000-2014年的面板数据考察了法治环境冲击和贸易开放冲击对金融发展的动态影响及这一影响在不同收入水平国家和金融危机前后的差异。研究表明,一方面,法治环境冲击在短期内对金融发展有正向影响,且这一影响在金融危机后更明显。另一方面,贸易开放对金融发展的影响与国家收入水平和金融危机影响有关:高收入国家的贸易开放积极影响金融发展;金融危机后,全球经济失衡尤其是国际贸易市场持续萎缩造成的贸易扭曲抑制了金融发展。

Based on panel vector auto regression model with the panel data of 69 countries during2000-2014,this paper examined the dynamic impacts of legal environment and trade openness on financial development and the differences of the impacts in countries with different income levels and the differences before and after the financial crisis.The study shows that,on one side,legal environment has a positive impact on financial development in the short term,and this influence is more obvious in the wake of the financial crisis.On the other hand,the impact of trade openness on financial development is related to national income level and the influence of financial crisis:trade openness in high income countries has a positive impact on financial development;After the financial crisis,the global economic imbalance,especially the trade distortions caused by the continuous shrink of international trade market,has restrained the financial development.