城市产业结构形态变迁及其内生动因:理论与实证

The Change of Urban Industrial Structure and Its Endogenous Motivation

在内生动力驱动产业结构形态变迁的理论推演基础上,采用2005-2014年中国279个地级市数据,实证分析了当前我国消费结构、要素禀赋、对外贸易与技术进步四方面的内生动力与产业结构形态变迁关系。研究表明:现阶段内生动力水平驱动各地区产业结构形态整体呈现集聚态势;不同阈值区间的内生动力对产业结构形态变迁影响存在差异;低水平区间内的技术进步促进地区产业多样性,高水平区间内则转变为促进集聚态势;对外贸易改善表现出对集聚态势持续性的促进作用;当前劳动力质量提升、资本深化驱动产业结构形态趋于多样性态势。我国现阶段资本深化与消费结构水平较低是制约地区产业结构形态高级化的"短板"。

The change of regional structural form depends on the endogenous dynamics of industrial structure upgrading.Using 2005-2014 data of 279 cities in China,this paper demonstrated that endogenous dynamics,including consumption structural upgrading,foreign trade improvement and technology advances,promote regional structural form to be agglomeration.The threshold effect test indicates that there is a threshold effect of endogenous dynamics on regional structural form:at low level,endogenous power from human capital accumulation and technological progress tend to promote regional industrial diversity,but the effect of these dynamics translates to promote agglomeration of advantageous industries at a higher level.Consumption structural upgrading tend to promote regional structure to be agglomeration;factor endowment improvement has a persistent positive effect on regional diversity.The'short-board'that restricts the dynamic evolution of industrial structure is the low level of capital deepening and consumption structure.