资源依赖对地区经济增长的影响——基于经济周期和产业结构视角的分析

The Effect of Resource Dependence on Economic Growth in the Perspective of Business Cycle and Economic Structure

怎样实现资源富集地区的可持续发展,一直是经济学者和政策决策者关注的重点问题。资源富集地区是否存在资源诅咒?如果存在,资源富集地区怎样才能摆脱资源诅咒?本文从经济周期和产业结构的角度对这些问题进行理论探讨,并运用109个矿产资源富集城市2003-2014年的面板数据进行实证分析发现:(1)资源依赖对地区经济增长的作用受到经济周期的影响。经济繁荣期,资源依赖对经济增长产生促进作用;经济衰退期,资源依赖对经济增长产生阻碍作用。(2)对于地区经济增长,产业多样化有利于增强知识溢出效应,弥补地区资源产业发展造成的溢出损失,产业多样化与资源依赖存在互补关系。(3)在经济衰退期,产业多样化的投资组合效应有利于减轻资源依赖对经济增长的负面影响。因此,资源富集地区应不断探索实现产业结构多样化的路径,逐步放开资源产业管制,引导民营企业发展资源深加工产业、专业设备制造业和消费性社会性服务产业。

How to realize the sustainable development of the regions with rich resources is a key issue,which attracts the focus of economists and policy makers.The main problems are that whether there are Resource Curses in these regions or not and how to break away from them if they exist.This paper discusses these problems theoretically from the perspective of business cycle and industrial structure,applies a positive analysis based on the panel data of 109 cities with rich mineral resources from 2003 to 2014,and gets the following conclusions.Firstly,the effect of resources dependence on regional economic growth is affected by the economic cycle.Resources dependence can promote the economic growth during the economic boom while hinder the growth during recessions.Secondly,industrial diversity could beneficially strengthen the knowledge spillover effect and make up the loss caused by the development of regional resource industry.There is a complementary relationship between industrial diversity and resource dependence.Thirdly,the portfolio effect of industrial diversity is in favor of reducing the negative effects of resource dependence on economic growth.The regions with rich resources should constantly explore the ways to diversify the economic structure,realize the deregulation of resource industry gradually,and lead the private enterprise to develop the resource deep processing industry,professional equipment manufacturing industry and consumer &social service industry.