粘性价格、金融摩擦与中国经济波动

Sticky Price,Financial Frictions and China's Economic Fluctuation

目前,将金融摩擦明确纳入粘性价格的分析框架内,研究金融摩擦对经济变量的影响方面,国内外学者做的不多。该文将粘性价格模型与金融摩擦结合起来,构建了一个包含金融摩擦与粘性价格的扩展DSGE模型,同时,利用我国1993年Q1-2015年Q4的季度数据,分析在粘性价格的条件下,金融摩擦对实体经济主要经济变量产出缺口、利率水平及通胀率的影响渠道及效果。通过分析发现:第一,粘性价格对金融摩擦的作用渠道与效果影响巨大。当经济中存在粘性价格时,经济变量特别是产出水平受金融摩擦的冲击比较大。第二,粘性价格与金融摩擦会使经济产生比较明显的衰退,繁荣循环,增强经济的周期性波动,不利用经济的稳定增长。第三,粘性价格会使社会经济效率降低,产出水平下降。

At present,few scholars have taken the financial frictions into framework of sticky prices to analyze financial friction impact on economic variables.This paper built a DSGE model including the expansion of financial friction and sticky prices,used the quarterly data of 1993Q1-2015Q4 in china,banded together sticky price model and financial friction,and analyzed the affections of financial friction on the real economy's main economic variables,which are output gap,interest rate and inflation rate,under the condition of sticky price.Through analysis,it found that:firstly,sticky price has great influence on financial friction,channel and effect.When there are sticky prices in the economy,economic variables,especially the output level,are more deeply impacted by financial frictions.Second,sticky prices and financial frictions will bring the economy more obvious recession and prosperity cycle,and increase the cyclical fluctuations in the economy,which is not good to the steady growth of the economy.Third,sticky prices will reduce social and economic efficiency and lower the production levels.