我国基本养老保险制度待遇水平测算及影响因素分析

The Treatment Level of the Basic Pension Insurance:Calculating,Comparing and Reform

近年来,针对不同参保群体,我国基本养老保险制度一直呈现城镇职工和城乡居民两种制度共存的局面。在同一框架内,以总替代率、净替代率、总相对水平、净相对水平四个指标为工具,利用精算模型测算城镇职工和城乡居民基本养老保险待遇水平。结果显示,城镇职工养老保险存在性别差异,城乡居民养老保险存在城乡差异,城镇职工养老保险待遇水平高于城乡居民。对影响待遇水平的退休年龄、投资收益率和待遇增长机制三项因素进行敏感性分析,发现这三项因素对两种制度的待遇水平都具有重要影响,对城镇职工养老制度影响大于城乡居民。

China's basic pension insurance system has been showing the coexistence between the urban employees and urban and rural residents for different groups in recent years.The paper uses four indicators to calculate pension treatment level of the two basic pension insurance systems including gross replacement rate,net replacement rate,gross relative level and net relative level.The conclusion shows that there are gender differences in the basic pension insurance for urban employees and differences between urban and rural areas in the basic pension insurance for urban and rural residents,and the treatment level for urban employees is higher than the urban and rural residents.Then we analyzed the sensitivity of the retirement age,the investment rate and the treatment growth mechanism.Meanwhile,we find the three factors have important effects on the treatment level,and the impact on urban employees is greater than urban and rural residents.In addition,necessary measures will have positive effects on pension treatment level,for example improving government subsidies,completing the system convergence,extending retirement age,raising the investment rate and standardizing treatment growth mechanism.