环境规制影响能源消费的直接效应和间接效应

Direct and Indirect Effects of Environmental Regulation on Energy Consumption

环境规制是否以及如何影响能源消费,基于2000年-2015年省级层面的面板数据,实证检验了环境规制影响能源消费的直接效应和间接效应。结果表明,我国政府制定的环境规制政策不仅能够直接降低能源消费,还能够通过倒逼技术创新、提高外资进入门槛间接降低能源消费,但环境规制通过倒逼产业结构调整并没有对降低能源消费起到积极的作用。人均收入与能源消费呈显著的"倒U型"关系,符合库兹涅茨曲线假说,目前我国大部分省份已越过"倒U型"曲线拐点,进入能源消费随人均收入增长的下降阶段;物质资本投入、外资进入、工业比重增加及城镇化率提高不利于降低能源消费,技术进步对降低能源消费的作用不显著。

Whether and how environmental regulation affects energy consumption is rarely mentioned in the literature.This article first analyzes the impact mechanism of environmental regulation on energy consumption through mediation effect.Then we builds a panel data measurement model and based on the panel data of provincial level from 2000 to 2016,we empirically tests the direct and indirect effects of environmental regulation on energy consumption.The results show that the environmental regulation policy formulated by the Chinese government can not only directly reduce energy consumption,but also indirectly reduce energy consumption by forcing technological innovation and increasing foreign investment barriers.However,environmental regulation has not played a positive role in reducing energy consumption by forcing industrial restructuring.Per capita income and energy consumption show a significant 'inverted U-shaped'relationship,in line with the Kuznets curve hypothesis.At present,most of China’s provinces have crossed the'inverted Ushaped'curve inflection point,entering the stage of decline in energy consumption with per capita income growth.The input of material capital,the entry of foreign capital,the increase of industrial proportion and the increase of urbanization rate are not conducive to reducing energy consumption.The effect of technological progress on reducing energy consumption is not significant.How to play the role of environmental regulation in the sustainable use of energy should be based on the corresponding institutional arrangements,that is,we should consider the direct energy-saving effect of environmental regulation,and pay more attention to the indirect energy-saving effect of environmental regulation.