弹道导弹防御体系能力的组合分析方法

Portfolio Analysis Method for Accessing Capability of Missile Defense System-of-Systems

针对弹道导弹防御体系面临的不确定性、复杂性问题,借鉴探索性分析和组合分析思想,提出体系能力的组合分析方法框架。依据多样化使命任务确定威胁想定集合,进行体系作战概念和备选方案设计,构建"想定-方案"矩阵。首先围绕保卫区、威胁控制区、应对威胁规模、综合拦截效果等计算单项效能指标评分;然后采用多属性决策方法,确定方案在单一想定下的效能评分,再运用"均值-方差"理论,将方案在所有想定下的效能聚合为能力评分与风险评分,最后权衡各方案能力、费用和风险等因素,设定决策准则,完成方案优选。通过案例研究验证了方法的有效性。

The frame work of a portfolio analysis method of accessing ballistic missile defense( BMD) capability is proposed for dealing with the uncertainty and complexity in designing and development of BMD system-of-systems according to the thought of exploratory analysis and portfolio analysis.Corresponding to diversified missions,a threat scenarios set is designed,and BMD operational concepts and alternative solutions are developed,thus'scenarios-solutions'matrix is built. After that,the effectiveness of every 'scenario-solution'element in the matrix described by key indexes including footprint area,launch control area,coping threat attack scale,and intercept ability is evaluated,and aggregated to a single value by multi-attribute decision making. Then the scores of alternative solutions’ capability and risk are aggregated respectively by mean value and variance of the effectiveness in all scenarios. Finally,the rational solution is selected comprehensively considering the capability,cost and mission risk using some decision criterion. The feasibility and availability of the approach are verified by case study.