近二十年中国汽车产业演变分析:基于SCP范式

Analysis of the Development of China's Automobile Industry in the Past Two Decades: Based on SCP Paradigm

以产业组织理论为基础,借助哈佛学派提出的SCP范式,着重分析了近二十年来我国汽车产业在外部环境变量的变动下市场结构、企业行为和市场绩效发生的变化,并构建三者间的结构性联系。因此发现一些结论:第一,我国当前汽车产业仍未形成极高寡占型的市场结构,存在高进入和退出壁垒,尚未实现规模经济;第二,市场集中度较低导致激烈的市场竞争,引发近三年汽车零售价格的整体下降,限制性定价策略从低端市场向中高端市场转移;第三,汽车行业进入低利润水平时期,汽车企业优胜劣汰的速度加快,最终实现了产业内部的优化升级。在中国宏观经济进入新常态的背景下,该发现有助于更准确的审视我国汽车产业的发展状况,为优化我国汽车产业内部组织,应对外部环境新变化对汽车市场的挑战提供决策支持。

Based on the industrial organization theory and SCP paradigm proposed by Harvard school, this paper focuses on the analysis of the changes in the market structure, market conduct and market performance of China’s automobile industry, with changing external environment variables in the past two decades, and constructs the structural relationship among them. This paper reveals that : firstly, China’s current automobile industry has not formed an extremely oligopolistic market structure with high entry and exit barriers, therefore has not yet realized scale economy;secondly, the relatively low market concentration leads to fierce market competition, which results in the overall decline of automobile retail prices in the past three years, and the shift of restrictive pricing strategy from low-end market to middle and high-end market;thirdly, as the automobile industry enters a period of low profit, the elimination of enterprises is accelerated, and the internal optimization and upgrading of the industry are finally realized. In the context of China’s macro-economy entering the so-called 'New Normal'situation, the findings of this paper are conducive to a more accurate review of the development status of China’s automobile industry, and provide decision support for optimizing the internal organization of China’s automobile industry, and responding to the challenges of new external environment on the automobile market.