城市房价上涨促进还是抑制了城镇居民消费?

How Do House Prices Affect Urban Resident's Consumption in China: Promotion or Inhibition?

家庭消费是价格不确定性传导到国民经济行为的重要渠道。近年来,中国房地产市场持续繁荣,但国内消费始终低迷。既有研究在理论和实证方面,对于房价上涨对居民消费的作用方向和大小并未达成一致意见,也鲜少涉及城市发展特征对住房财富与消费两者关系的影响。本文采用2003-2016年地级市面板数据,在非线性框架下实证检验了城市房价水平与城镇居民消费支出两者之间的关系。结果表明,城市房价水平上涨虽然增加了家庭财富,但同时也提升了住房服务的消费成本,正向的财富效应被负向的替代效应所抵消,导致其对城镇居民消费支出总体上呈现抑制作用。在不同的金融发展水平和房价增长率下,城市房价水平对居民消费呈现出非线性影响特征。要缓解房地产市场对国内消费需求的抑制作用,关键是要促使房价回归合理水平,将房价控制在居民可以承受的范围之内。未来要继续采取措施稳定房价,有效提升居民消费意愿,从而扩大内需。

Household consumption is an important channel for price uncertainty to be transmitted to the national economy.Both theoretical and empirical studies have not reached consensus on the direction and size of the effect of housing price on residents’consumption,and rarely involve the impact of urban development characteristics.Based on the panel data of prefecture-level cities from 2003 to 2016,this paper empirically tested the relationship between urban housing price level and urban residents’consumption expenditure under the nonlinear framework.The positive wealth effect is offset by the negative substitution effect,which leads to an overall inhibitory effect on the consumption expenditure of urban residents.Under different financial development level and housing price growth rate,the urban housing price level has a nonlinear influence on residents’consumption.To alleviate the restraining effect of the real estate market on domestic consumption demand,the key is to promote the housing price to return to a reasonable level.In the future,effective measures should be taken to stabilize housing prices,thus effectively increase resident’s consumption willingness,and expand domestic demand.