以LSI-R为量具的缓刑犯违规风险评估实证研究

LSI-R-based Empirical Evaluation of Risk of Violations in a Sample of Probationers

对西方罪犯危险性评估领域的第三代量具的最重要代表——LSI-R量表进行的本土化实证研究发现,该量表具有较高的内部一致性,并在解释缓刑犯违规行为方面表现出显著的预测效度。研究还发现该量表的某些维度存在着信度和效度不足的问题,并且缓刑犯的年龄也是预测其违规行为的显著有效因素。尽管LSI-R量表可以为中国的罪犯风险评估提供有益的借鉴,但是在应用于中国现实之前有必要进行更加深入全面的实证检验。

Level of Service Inventory-Revised(LSI-R),which is the most eminent instrument of the third generation of offender risk assessment technology in western justice system,has been found to be internally consistent and significant in predictive validity for explaining the risk of violations in a sample of Chinese probationers.However,there are a few dimensions of LSI-R which are inadequate in both reliability and predictive validity.Moreover,the age of probationers is another significant factor in predicting the risk of violations.In sum,while LSI-R provides preliminary empirical support and insightful prospect,more comprehensive empirical evaluations on LSI-R are needed before its application in China.