帕斯卡概率解释的演变与发展探赜

On the Evolution and Developing of Pascal Probability Interpretation

帕斯卡概率逻辑自凯恩斯建立第一个现代类型的系统理论以来,获得了长足的发展。本文就概率解释的演变与发展进行了详尽的探讨。其中,主观解释与主体交互解释是迄今为止可利用的比较有效的认识论解释,并且它们在社会科学中有广泛的应用;而性向解释已经替代了频率解释成为当前可利用的有效的客观解释,并且它适用于自然科学中。

Since Keynes established the first systemic theory of modern types, pascal probability logic has been developed rapidly. The article thoroughly probes into the evolution and developing of interpretations of probability. Among these interpretations, the subjective interpretation and the the intersubjective interpretation are the relatively valid epistemological interpretations available till now, and they have extensive application in the social sciences; The propensity interpretation which have substituted for the frequency interpretation becomes the valid objective interpretation currently available, and is appropriate for the natural sciences.