中国式影子银行:定义、估测及风险评估

Shadow Banking System in China:Definition,Measurement&Risk Assessment

本文对影子银行系统的定义进行了比较,在采取美联储定义的基础上,提出了中国影子银行系统的上下限规模的估测方法,目前其规模大约为18万亿元,比普遍估测的规模要小,更远低于金融稳定理事会的估测。中国影子银行的发展处于雏形,期限错配和收益错配为其表象风险,地方财政信用和私营部门信用薄弱是风险本质,未来3—5年,中国影子银行系统的潜在不良率为8%—12%,中国金融体系尚无系统性金融风险,化解影子银行金融风险的关键,不仅在于防范重点风险暴露部位、增加透明度、建立银行和影子银行之间的'防火墙',在很大程度上,也依赖于财政、金融的转型,以及国有和私营企业融资关系的合理化。

The paper compares the definitions of the shadow banking system and estimates its scale in China to be approximately 18 trillion Yuan.The booming of shadow banking system is in its early stage,its major risks include the term structure mismatch and yield mismatch.It is assessed that the potential bad debts ratio is about 8%-12%within 3 to 5 years,and the policy recommendations include transparency enhancement,fire-wall between the commercial banking system and the shadow banking system,further reform of tax-sharing system in China.