PM2.5减排须有“顶层设计”和量化方案

PM2.5 Reduction Requires“Top-Down Policy Design”and Quantitative Analysis

如何有效治理空气污染已成为我国政府面临的最大挑战之一。环保部亦已宣布,力争于2030年前全国所有城市达到空气质量二级标准,这意味着城市PM2.5年均水平届时必须降至30。本研究建立了第一个PM2.5定量模型。以此模型,我们首先评估了目前的煤炭、汽车等产业趋势和交通运输规划与PM2.5减排目标的不可兼容性。结果表明,若现行政策不变,我国将无法在2030年达到PM2.5的减排目标。根据一系列模拟,我们提出,为了达到减排目标,政策必须大变以达到如下新的结构调整目标:煤炭消费量需要在2016年见顶;吨煤污染排放在未来18年中需降低约70%;每辆汽车平均污染排放降低约80%;清洁能源占能源消费的比重需从目前的13%大幅提高到2020年的27%和2030年的46%;乘用车保有量的增速应该从过去年均20%大幅降低至单位数增长;在未来8年内将铁路里程提高60%,将地铁总里程提高4倍。为了推动这些结构变化,需要采取大幅提高煤炭资源税和排污费、引入汽车牌照拍卖制度等改革措施。此外,本研究还量化了上述政策对经济发展、财政赤字以及价格水平的影响,发现其影响是可控的。在行业层面,新的政策组合将显著利好天然气、核电、水电、风电、太阳能、环保、铁路以及相关设备制造业。

Reducing air pollution is now one of the biggest challenges for China’s new leadership.The Ministry of Environmental Protection has announced the target that by 2030 all cities should achieve level II air quality,implying that the annual average PM2.5 of Chinese cities should be cut to 30 by then.In this paper,by establishing the first quantitative PM2.5 reduction model,we first evaluate the inconsistency between current policies and the target of curbing air pollution.The result shows that,without changing the many sector development plans and fiscal policies,China’s air quality will not improve to the targeted level by 2030.Based on model simulations we propose that,in order to meet the PM2.5 reduction target by 2030,China should undertake major reforms to achieve the following structural adjustments:coal consumption should peak in 2016;emission per unit of coal consumption should fall by 70%in coming 18 years;emission per car should be reduced by more than 80%;the proportion of clean energies in total energy consumption should rise from the current 13%to 46%in 2030;the growth of passenger vehicle ownership should fall to single digits from 20%p.a.in the past years;and the total lengths of railways and subways should rise 60%and four-fold,respectively,from 2013-2020.To achieve these structural changes requires many reforms such as a significant increase in coal resource tax and pollution levies,as well as the introduction of car plate auction system in major cities.We also quantify the impact of the above-proposed policies on economic growth,fiscal balance,and inflation,and found it is manageable.On sectors,we conclude that beneficiaries of the policies we proposed will include gas,nuclear,wind,solar,environmental protection,railways/subways and related equipment manufacturing.