利率市场化的宏观效应分析和政策建议

Analysis on the Macroeconomic Effects of InterestRate Liberalization and Some Policy Proposals

本文主要分析利率市场化的宏观效应。利率水平上升有助于抑制投资、促进消费;利率上升和资金配置效率提高有助于推动服务业发展,促进产业结构调整;存贷利差收窄降低银行利润,银行向企业和居民让利;伴随利率市场化的是金融市场快速发展、直接融资加快,这有利于优化金融结构。但利率市场化也可能带来一系列宏观风险。银行特别是小型银行面临较大的经营风险;金融创新加快的同时也带来了风险;房地产业潜在信用风险可能进一步加大;地方政府债务有进一步上升的危险;财政收入增长会因为银行业税收增速降低而有所下降。建议审慎、稳妥地放开存款利率上限,并在金融监管、货币政策、财税政策、重点领域调控等方面采取相应举措。

In this article,we mainly analyze the macroeconomic effects of interest rate liberalization.Increase of interest rate will restrain investment and promote consumption.Because of the high efficiency of fund allocation and high interest rate,the service industry will be promoted and industry structure will become more appropriate.Households and enterprises will be benefited,because narrowing interest rate spread decrease the profit of banking industry.With the rapid development of financial market and direct finance,the structure of finance industry will become more balanced.However,interest rate liberalization may also bring risk.Banks may experience business failure,especially small banks.Financial innovation always brings risk.Credit risk of household industry may become more risky.The total debt of local government may increase.We suggest that interest rate liberalization should be advanced gradually and steadily,and accompanied measures are needed,such as financial regulation,monetary policy,fiscal policy and control of some industries.