从世界城市规模分布模式看中国未来的城市发展

China's Primacy City Development in theFuture: from a View of World’sCity SizeDistribution Pattern

根据Berry(1961)提出的城市规模分布类型图,我们采用中国287个城市的人口数据发现,与美国标准的'位序规模分布'不同,中国目前的城市规模分布位于'首位分布'和'位序规模分布'之间。从中国的累积分布图可以看到,中国缺少'中间城市',即人口规模在200万—1000万之间的城市。因此,政策应该更加支持和关注'中间城市'的发展。同时,从世界经验来看,经济发展和首位度(人口的集中程度)之间存在倒U形关系,这意味着,伴随着中国从'中高收入组'到未来进入'高收入组'的过程,中国的城市规模分布会趋于合理。受到地租和运输成本的影响,首位城市产生的聚集经济和规模经济最终会被空间分布成本抵消,因此,从理论上看,北京和上海等首位城市的人口并不会无限膨胀。

Based on a city size distribution pattern introduced by Berry(1961),we use China’s city population data to analysis the type of China’s city size distribution pattern in 2010.The main findings are as follows.First,China’s city size distribution pattern interposed between standard rank size distribution and primacy distribution.That means China need more middle size city(e.g.the city population from 2 to 10 Million)other than large size of city or small size of city.Government need to introduce more active policy measures to improve the development of middle size city.Furthermore,we also find that there is an inverted U sharp between per capita income and population concentration.That means the city size distribution will become rationalized when China goes through from middle income country group to rich country group.The population in primacy city,such as Beijing and Shanghai,will not unlimitedly expand in the future because the gains from economic agglomeration will be offset by the rent and transportation costs.