利率市场化改革与银行利差

Interest Rate Marketization and Bank Interest Rate Spreads

本文简单介绍了中国利率市场化改革进程和当前的利率市场化状况,并以贷款利率放开、存款利率管制为前提,构建了一个简单的利率市场化模型。模型暗示,假定银行信贷需求和信贷结构不变,管制放开将带来银行存款利率的上升、存款数量的增长、贷款利率的下降以及银行利差的收窄。以对保本理财市场和大额协存市场利率数据的观察为基础,并考虑货币基金发展对银行资金成本的影响,本文粗略估计,利率市场化也许使银行利差收窄100BP左右。

In this paper we provide an extensive review on China’s interest rate liberalization process and build a basic analytical model for interest rate liberalization based on free lending rates and controlled deposit rates.Assuming the aggregate demand for bank credit and the credit structure remain unchanged,our model implies that,dropping interest rates controls will lead to higher deposit rates,larger deposit amount,lower lending rates,and declining loan-to-deposit spreads.Based on the interest rate data from bank wealth management products and agreement deposit,our quantitative assessment shows that interest rate liberalization may push the loan-todeposit spreads down by 100 bps.