对当前中国金融系统性风险问题的实证研究

Empirical Research on Systemic Risk in China’sFinancial System

有效识别和准确评估风险是防范金融系统性风险的重要前提。本文在梳理国际上关于系统性风险的定义、发展阶段以及识别和评估方法的基础上,实证分析我国当前潜在的金融系统性风险程度、风险来源、触发条件及触发可能性。通过借鉴IMF金融稳定图监测法,认为我国金融系统性风险隐患正在累积。同时,基于系统性风险的三个分析角度、三个触发条件,得出的基本结论是,我国银行'大而不强'的特征致使潜在系统性影响上升,而房地产是当前可能引发系统性风险的唯一行业隐患,金融体系的整体流动性风险也值得高度重视,并进一步指出目前尚不具备引发系统性风险的触发条件,但房地产量价变化是最不稳定因素。最后,本文就我国面临的系统性风险隐患,从推动金融改革、确保房地产软着陆和缓解流动性风险压力三个方面提出政策建议。

Effective risk identification and accurate assessment is an important prerequisite for preventing systemic risk.After reviewing the literature on the definition,development,identification,and surveillance of systemic risk,this study empirically investigates the sources,triggers and possibilities of China’s potential systemic risk.Taking the IMF’s Financial Stability Map as an analytical benchmark,the paper finds that systemic risk in China has been rising.An analysis equipped with three dimensions and three triggers,this paper concludes that China’s“big-but-not-strong”banks contribute to rising systemic risk,the real estate industry is currently the only source of systemic risk,and liquidity risks in the financial system need more attention.Although the triggers of systemic risk seem unlikely to materialize in the short term,the change in sales and prices of real estate is currently the most unstable factor.The paper concludes with policy suggestions,such as further diversifying financial structure,preventing a hard landing in the real estate market,and reducing liquidity risk.