房地产信托的兑付危机

Payment Crisis of Real Estate Trust

2014年第三季度和第四季度中国信托业将迎来行业拐点,信托产品的本息偿付额将在这两个季度内创造新高,并于2015年维持高位。大量的本息偿付和不良贷款上升可能会冲击整个信托行业。中国房地产市场增长放缓和房地产投资的下滑令市场格外关注房地产相关集合信托的风险。在过去两年中,约四成的问题信托都与房地产直接相关。三四线城市地产类信托产品的违约风险更值得留意。许多策略过于激进的信托公司可能在未来数月难以避免地面临破产。

China’s trust industry will go through an inflection point in the third and fourth quarter of this year.The total payment of interest and principal will reach a peak in this period and remain at a high level in 2015.These large repayments and rising non-performing loans may have a negative impact on the industry.Now the market is paying more attention to collective trusts related to real estate because of the real estate market’s slower growth.In the previous two years,about 40%of troubled trust programs were related to real estate.In third and fourth tier cities,real estate trust products deserve even more attention.Many trust companies taking overly aggressive strategies may find it difficult to avoid bankruptcy in the next few months.