“微刺激”之后房地产调整下的中国经济

China’s Economy Post-Micro-stimulus andDuring Real Estate Industry Adjustment

房地产市场经历了2013年新一轮膨胀后,年初以来再度下滑。经验表明货币金融环境是影响房地产短期波动周期的重要因素,而此轮地产调整离不开2013年下半年以来流动性收紧和融资利率高企,具有明显的周期性特点。中央经过多轮调控实践逐渐确立了地产调控终极目标,即消除住房'投资品'属性,让其逐渐回归以居住为主的'消费品'属性。目前房地产的融资环境总体偏紧,尽管多数城市放松限购,但难以扭转地产价格下降趋势。二季度以来,政府出台一系列'稳增长'政策,带有'微刺激'的特点。'微刺激'难以扭转房地产和整体投资回落趋势,无法解决经济体系资源配置机制等结构性问题。

After last year’s expansion,China’s real estate market has been declining since the beginning of this year.Prior experience shows that the financial environment is an important factor affecting the short-term fluctuation of the real estate market.The new round of adjustment is related to the liquidity crunch and high lending rates since the second half of 2013.After many rounds of practice measures,the central government has established the final target for real estate regulation,which is to eliminate housing’s investment attribute in favor of nature of consumption gradually.The current financing environment of real estate market is tight overall.Even though most cities have relaxed house-purchasing restrictions,the trajectory of housing prices is still downward.Since the second quarter of 2014,the government has released a system of policies for steady growth,with a feature of micro-stimulus.However,micro-stimulus may be unable to change the downturn of real estate market and investment or to solve some structural problems such as resources allocation.