人民币利率水平与利率市场化

RMB Interest Rates andInterest Rate Liberalization

2013年中国出现了GDP增速放缓而利率水平上升(无论名义利率还是实际利率)的'利率逆反'现象,是2003年至2012年间利率水平过低'物极必反'的后果,也和利率市场化进程缓慢以及货币政策'汇率为纲'的调控架构有关。中央银行在社会融资渠道发生巨大变化的背景下,不得不发挥利率工具作用调控货币总供求。如果政府本着维护国有企业地位,货币政策可能难以避免地要降低利率水平,增加信贷额度定向支持企业,中国经济似乎再次回到1998年至2002年的调整时期。经验教训证明,越能够主动地推进利率市场化进程,坚持货币政策稳健,经济越能够重振活力和实现增长,反之经济萧条的时间就越长。

In 2013,China’s GDP growth(both nominal and real)was slower than before,but interest rates are rising.This is the so-called“interest rate reverse”phenomenon,which is a natural result of the very low interest rate level from 2003 to 2012 and is related to the slow process of interest rate liberalization and regulatory monetary policy whose primary target is the RMB exchange rate.With great changes in society’s financing channels,the central bank had to use interest rate tools to regulate money supply and demand.If the government still tries to maintain the status of state-owned enterprises and increase credit to support these enterprises,monetary policy will have to reduce interest rates.Additionally,China’s economy will return to conditions like those in the adjustment period between 1998 and 2002.Previous experience shows that the economy will rediscover its vitality if we facilitate interest rate liberalization and insist on moderate monetary policy.If we do not,then tough economic times will last longer.