迈向“新常态”的路径与挑战

China’s Economic New Normal:Path and Challenges

中国经济从高速增长转向中速增长已成为共识。虽然5%-8%的中速增长有可能成为'新常态',但中国经济迈向这一'新常态'的路径很可能并不平坦,主要是因为固定资产投资在巨额基数之上的两位数增长几乎到了无以为继的地步。本文通过对这些可能路径所做的模拟分析,展示中国经济在今后几年可能面临的挑战,并提出相应的政策建议。

Abstract:The current consensus is that China’s annual economic growth will decelerate from around 10%over the past decades to 5%-8%in the coming years.Medium-paced rather than rapid growth is now viewed as the New Normal of China’s economy.Our analysis suggests that the path to the New Normal in the next 4-5 years will likely be bumpy,because high fixed investment growth has virtually reached at the limits of what is sustainable.We list the challenges that China’s economy will face on different paths to the New Normal and give relevant policy advice.