2016年宏观经济视角——供给之道,实则虚之

2016 China Macroeconomic Perspective

展望2016年,美联储加息和中国央行降息是影响全球金融市场的重要因素,背后折射的是两个最大经济体的动能。本文将从利率与经济的关系入手破解宏观供求之谜。货币金融连接供给和需求,也可以导致供需持续偏高,体现为市场利率偏离与充分就业一致的均衡利率。中国尚处于金融周期下半场的调整阶段,去杠杆带来过剩储蓄,均衡利率下降。既然需求相对供给疲弱反映了一些结构性因素,在总需求管理之外,更需要供给和需求端的结构改革。供给侧改革对经济的影响最终将体现为均衡利率回升,或者限制均衡利率下降的空间。

In 2016,the differentiated monetary policy of Fed rate hike and China's central bank interest rates cut is an important factor affecting the global financial markets,which reflects the dynamic energy from the two largest economies.This article starts with the relationship between interest rates and economy to unlock the myth of macro supply and demand.Monetary and financial system connects supply and demand,and may also lead to continued high level of supply and demand,as is shown in the deviation of the market interest rates from the full employment equilibrium interest rates.China is still in the second half of the adjustment phase of the financial cycle,as the deleverage process would bring excess savings and the decline of equilibrium interest rates.As the relatively weak demand reflects some structural flaws,the structural reforms for both supply and demand side is needed in addition to the aggregate demand management.The impact of supply side reform on the economy will eventually be reflected in the rise or limited decline of equilibrium interest rates.