美联储加息的十个问题

Ten Questions about the Fed’s Rate Liftoff

在三轮量化宽松和七年的零利率政策之后,美国消费、投资全面温和增长,就业接近充分水平,复苏基础较为稳固。美联储多次摇摆后终于将在2015年12月启动加息。和以往不同,这是联储首次在资产负债表庞大和全球货币政策分化的背景下加息,将对全球经济和金融市场产生重大影响。我们总结联储加息最为关键的十个问题,试图对加息时点、步伐、方式及影响做出全面解读。

After three rounds of QE and seven years of zero interest rate,consumption and investment in the U.S.continue to show moderate growth.The labor market is approaching full employment.The pace of recovery is solid.After months of hesitation,the Federal Reserve will finally start hiking rates in December 2015.This much anticipated rate liftoff is unprecedented since it is the first time that the Federal Reserve raises rates with a large balance sheet and against divergent monetary policies around the globe.The liftoff will have profound implications for the global economy and financial markets.We try to understand the hike’s timing,pace and impact,as summarized in the following ten questions:1.Why liftoff this year?2.Hike with low inflation?3.Data or market dependent?4.Is the dollar weighing on hiking?5.What’s the future rate hike path like?6.Will monetary policy return to normalcy?7.Will the long rate rise or fall after the hike?8.Will the liftoff accelerate outflows from EMs?9.How does the liftoff affect other QE central banks?10.Will the liftoff trigger a double dip recession as in 1936?