为美国新政府下的中美经济合作创建坚实基础

Creating a Basis for China-US EconomicCooperation under the New US Administration

中美贸易关系不断增强,是由两国经济体量和结构上的互补性以及宏观经济政策决定的。中国目前处于经济再平衡状态,改善国内投资和消费结构将有助于减少双边贸易失衡。同理,特朗普政府当前的预算提案带来财政赤字增加,并对美元估值产生影响,进而扩大美国的整体和双边贸易赤字。尽管平衡的双边贸易对于产业竞争力抑或家庭在贸易中的得失并没有任何意义,但是美国新一届政府对双边贸易赤字仍深表担忧。美国政府给中国强加的这些贸易壁垒只会将其与中国的贸易逆差转移到其他国家,造成效益和福利的损失。中美贸易战爆发不仅会造成两败俱伤的局面,而且会影响全球经济,并进一步在金融和需求方面对中美造成影响。

Their economic size and structural complementarity determines the still growing trade relationship between China and the United States,along with their macroeconomic policies.China is in a state of economic rebalancing.Improved domestic investment and consumption structure will help reduce the bilateral trade imbalances.By the same token,increased fiscal deficits in the US and their potential effect on the dollar’s valuation,as current Trump budget proposals would create,would widen the US’overall and bilateral trade deficits.Although the bilateral trade balances have no meaning in terms of industrial competitiveness,or households winning versus losing from trade,the new US government is deeply concerned about the bilateral trade deficit.The imposition by the US government of such trade barriers on China would only shift its trade deficit with China to other countries and result in the loss of efficiency and welfare.If a Sino-US trade war breaks out,it will not only cause a lose-lose scenario for both two countries but also affect the global economy,with financial and demand feedback on the US as well as China.