美国财政政策变化及其对美国经济的影响

Prospects for Changes in U.S. Fiscal Policy andTheir Effects on the U.S. Economy

2016年美国大选后,居民和企业信心上升,显示出美国人民期待新总统的政策能够提升短期和更长期的美国经济表现。不幸的是,这些期望有可能落空,原因是政策变化的范围可能有限,而且程度可能不及预期。按照历史标准,美国国内生产总值(GDP)近年来表现不佳。经济供给方面的趋势是导致产出增长放缓的主要力量。潜在产出增长放缓的另一个原因是生产率(每小时产出)增长趋势的放缓。当然,经济增长并不仅仅是由供给侧的因素决定的,对于货物和服务的需求也起着重要的作用。虽然扩张性财政政策可能会通过增加需求在短期内提振国内生产总值,但是面临财政刺激措施,美联储可能会更快地提高联邦基金利率,因而对短期经济增长的净影响将会有限。美国经济似乎正在以大致2%的速度稳定增长,与大多数预测者认可的目前可持续的实际GDP长期增长率相似。这一步伐远低于20世纪后半叶的平均每年超过3%的增长率,主要是因为人口因素导致劳动力增长放缓。

The 2016 U.S.election was followed by a surge in household and business confidence,suggesting that Americans expect the policies of the new President to enhance both the short-run and the longer-run performance of the U.S.economy.Unfortunately,these expectations are likely to be disappointed because changes in policy are likely to be limited and because the changes that do occur are likely to be less potent than people imagine.Growth of U.S.GDP has been tepid in recent years by historical standards.Powerful trends on the supply side of the economy have primarily driven the slowdown in output growth.Also contributing to the slowing of potential output growth is a slowing of the trend rate of productivity(output per hour)growth.Of course,economic growth is not determined solely by its supply-side drivers—demand for goods and services also plays a role.Expansionary fiscal policy could potentially provide some short-term boost to GDP growth by increasing demand,although the Federal Reserve would probably raise the federal funds rate more sharply in the face of additional fiscal stimulus so the net effect on short-term economic growth would be limited.The American economy appears to be expanding solidly—at a roughly 2 percent pace that is similar to what most forecasters think is the currently sustainable longer-term growth rate of real GDP.This pace is well below the average annual growth rate of more than 3 percent seen in the later decades of the last century,with the step-down mainly due to demographic factors that have slowed labor force growth.