摘要
关于'未来潜在增长点将是什么'这个问题的答案与其不可预知性同样重要。本文试图通过结合未知因素(未来生产率增长、劳动力市场表现)与已知因素(人口结构的演变)来回答增长前景的问题。与发达经济体及中国这样的经济体在内的世界其他经济体一样,美国经济面临的主要挑战也是人口问题。这个挑战来自几十年前的生育决策,在短时间内无法改变。因此,美国在未来十年中的增长率将维持在2%左右,比较可能处在0.9%~2.7%之间,而高于3.0%则比较不可能。健全的政策可以提高这一潜在增长率,例如税收改革、监管改革和基础设施投资的结合预计可以提升增长率0.5个百分点。但有问题的经济政策,包括限制贸易、移民或大幅增加赤字也可能降低增长速度。值得注意的是,本文并没有尝试对特朗普总统经济政策本身的可取性做任何评估。除了上文所述的增长效应之外,可取性的评估还需要考虑一系列其他因素,比如对收入分配的影响、移民的社会经济影响或贸易政策对外交政策的影响等。
The answer to the question“What will future potential growth be?”is as important as it is unknowable.This paper attempts to answer the question of what the outlook for growth is by combining what is unknown(future productivity growth,the performance of the labor market)with what is known(the evolution of the age structure of the population).The major challenge facing the U.S.economy—like many other economies around the world including advanced economies and economy’s like China—is demography.This challenge is based on fertility decisions made decades ago and cannot be changed in the near future.As a result,the United States will most likely have a growth rate of around 2 percent over the next decade—with growth rates of 0.9 percent to 2.7 percent being plausible and anything above 3.0 percent being implausible.Sound policies could raise this potential growth rate,with a plausible estimate being that a combination of tax reform,regulatory reform,and infrastructure investment could add about 0.5 percentage points to the growth rate.But problematic economic policies could also lower the growth rate,including restrictions on trade,immigration,or large increases in the deficit.This paper does not attempt any evaluation of the desirability of President Trump’s economic policies per se.In addition to the growth effects described in this paper,such an evaluation would need to take into account a range of other factors,like the impact on the distribution of income,the socioeconomic effects of immigration,or the foreign-policy impact of trade policy.
作者
Jason Furman
Jason Furman(Peterson Institute for International Economics)
出处
《新金融评论》
2017年第3期25-38,共14页
New Finance Review
关键词
美国经济
潜在增长率
人口结构
U.S.Economy
Potential Growth Rate
Structure of the Population