论美中双边投资协定的重要性:潜在经济效益

The Importance of Doing Our BIT: The EconomicPotential of a U.S.-China Bilateral Investment Treaty

虽然中国在经济开放方面已经取得了重大进展,包括允许私营企业、国际贸易和外商投资等进入市场,但这一进程还远未结束。外商直接投资中国服务性行业的壁垒相对较高,从而降低了服务行业生产力,抬高了价格,限制了中国消费者和企业的选择,最终抑制了经济增长。美中双边投资协定(BIT)则能在消除外商直接投资壁垒、促进两国经济发展上发挥重要作用。一个高标准的BIT将对深化开放外资以及提高中国服务性行业的竞争与发展水平产生重大影响。加大外商直接投资或将成为缩小中国第三产业和国际先进标准间生产力鸿沟的契机。若放开本土竞争与实施BIT同时进行,那么一个高标准的BIT将在极大程度上提升中国经济增长潜力。尽管评估BIT的影响较为困难,我们参考了一系列最新研究报告估算潜在收益范围。我们的研究表明签订BIT可能带来巨大收益。

While China has made important strides toward the opening of its economy to private entrepreneurship,international trade,and foreign investment,the process is far from complete.Barriers to foreign direct investment in the service sector in China are relatively high.These barriers lower productivity,raise prices,constrain choices for Chinese consumers and businesses,and hold back growth.A U.S.-China bilateral investment treaty(BIT)could play an important role in eliminating barriers to foreign direct investment,bringing benefits to both countries.A high-standards BIT could play a significant role in opening these sectors further to foreign investment and spur competition and growth in China’s service sector.Increased FDI offers the opportunity to close a large productivity gap between China’s service sector and international best practices.If implemented in the context of complementary reforms opening these industries to more domestic competition,a high-standards BIT could substantially enhance China’s growth potential.While forecasting the impact is difficult,we draw upon a number of recent studies to provide a range of estimates of the potential gains.Our analyses suggest these gains could be substantial.