本轮去产能成效、问题及历史经验梳理

Cutting Overcapacity: Successes, Problems, andHistorical Experiences

本文在分析本轮去产能成效和问题的基础上,梳理了历史上特别是上一轮大规模去产能(1998—2000年)政策和经验,并对上轮与本轮去产能环境特征做了全面对比。基本结论是,尽管我国去产能政策体系逐渐改善,去产能效果一次比一次显著;但行政手段在其中仍发挥了关键作用,市场化长效机制仍是短板,这也是历次去产能效果不能持久、结构优化不足的根本原因。与20世纪90年代末相比,当今去产能的内外环境已发生重大变化,市场化程度明显提升,有条件从深化供给侧结构性改革和转变政府职能两方面着力,加快构建防治产能过剩风险的市场化长效机制。

On the basis of analysis against the effect and problems of this round of de-capacity,this paper also concludes the policies and experience in history,especially the last large-scale round of de-capacity(1998-2000),and conducts an overall comparison between the last round and this one in characteristics of de-capacity environment.A basic conclusion is made that although Chinese de-capacity policy system is gradually improved and produces more remarkable effects,the political means is still playing a key role in it and long-term mechanism of marketization is still a short slab,which is also the root cause why the de-capacity effects of all previous rounds were not lasting and the structure optimization was insufficient.Compared to the 1990s,the current internal and external environments of de-capacity has experienced a great change and the marketization degree became significantly enhanced,which offers conditions to emphasize two aspects,including deepening of supply-side structural reform and transformation of governmental functions,in order to accelerate construction of the long-term mechanism of marketization preventing overcapacity risks.