经济新周期之辨——需求、供给与债务

Identification of the New Economic Cycle: from the Perspective of Demand, Supply and Debt

传统的库存、设备投资与房地产投资都很难在需求面开启新的经济周期。去产能政策弱化库存周期,制造业设备投资面临着诸多约束。人口、城镇化等基本面因素决定着我国房地产投资高速期已过。从供给端来看,仅仅是产能领域的供需改善很难成为经济新周期开启的充分条件。从债务角度来看,我国非金融部门宏观杠杆率上行趋势没有改变,非金融企业高杠杆的问题突出,居民部门杠杆上升速度较快。我国目前尚未经历完整的债务周期。

Traditional inventory,equipment and real estate investment are difficult to start a new economic cycle from the demand side.Cutting overcapacity policy weakens the inventory cycle and manufacturing equipment investment faces many constraints.Population,urbanization and other fundamental factors determine the hgih speed period of real estate industry has passed in China.From the angle of supply side,the improvement in production field is not sufficient to start a new business cycle.From the perspective of debt,the upward trend of the macro leverage ratio in the non-financial sector in China has not changed,the problem of high leverage of nonfinancial enterprises is prominent,and the leverage of the resident sector is rising fast.China has not yet experienced a full debt cycle.