中国经济:新常态下的非常态回暖及行业分化

China’s Economy in 2017

2016年第一季度以来,中国经济持续回暖,但最大特点是价格指标显著回升而剔除价格影响后的数量指标回升微弱。我们对这个现象从三个角度展开了分析:正向需求冲击带动了经济回暖;行政手段去产能对供给能力造成了一次冲击;市场自发产能出清对供给面的市场集中度造成了二次冲击,而在二次冲击当中,行政去产能也进一步强化了市场集中度的提升。三股力量共同导致了产出—通胀关系的变异。供给面发生的这些变化主要集中于矿产资源和化工类行业,这造成了PPI增速和利润改善状况在行业层面出现严重分化。在经济回暖过程中,这种行业分化值得关注。

China’s economy has been notably on the rise.Comparing with the economic recoveries in last decades,the rebound of this time reflects more on higher price but not production increase.To understand the abnormal economic recovery,this paper elaborates from three perspectives:(1)a positive demand shock revived the economy,(2)policies of cutting overcapacity evolved into cutting production and led to a first shock to the supply curve,(3)the increase of market concentration induced a second shock to the supply curve.All the three factors led to a variation of the relation between output and inflation.These changes happened mainly in mineral and chemical industry,which resulted in industry differentiation in PPI and profits.This kind of industry differentiation deserves close attention.