中国的城市化与房地产市场

China’s Urbanization and Real Estate Market

进入本世纪以来,中国的城市化进程开始加速。在十几年的时间里,数以亿计的人口迁入城市,在这一过程中创造了前所未见的经济繁荣。在这一背景下,中国城市的房地产价格开始普遍上升,并在后期出现巨大分化。尽管中国仍然是一个中高收入国家,但北京、上海等一线城市的房屋价格却已赶上和超过许多高收入国家的水平,引发对于房地产泡沫的深切忧虑。但与此同时,大量三四线城市的房价却维持在相当合理和可以负担的水平上,从而与一线城市的情况形成鲜明的对比和巨大的反差。本文试图讨论三个问题:一是2010—2012年是中国城市化进程的重要分水岭。二是由于政府对土地市场的垄断,决策认知以及一些政治经济方面的可能原因,在中小城市土地供应相对充足的同时,特大城市的土地供应十分匮乏。三是2009年国际金融危机之后政府的一揽子刺激政策造成了全国范围内房价的普遍上涨和存货的快速积累,具有明显的泡沫化特征。

China’s urbanization has accelerated since the turn of the century.Over the course of a decade,hundreds of millions of people moved into cities,creating an unprecedented economic boom in the process.Under this background,the real estate prices of Chinese cities began to rise generally,and in the later stage,there was a huge divergence.Although China is still a middleincome country,but in the first-tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai housing prices have caught up with and surpassed that of the many high-income countries,causing for deep concern of real estate bubble.At the same time,the housing price of a large number of third-tier and fourth-tier cities is maintained at a reasonable and affordable level,which makes a sharp contrast with the situation in first-tier cities.This paper attempts to discuss three issues.First,2010-2012 period is an important watershed of China’s urbanization process.Second,due to the government’s monopoly of the land market,decision-making cognition and the possible causes of some political and economic aspects,while the supply of land in small and medium-sized cities is relatively adequate,the land supply in megacities is very scarce.Third,the stimulus package by Chinese government after the global financial crisis caused a nationwide rise in house prices and the rapid accumulation of inventories.This process has obvious characteristics of bubbling.