中国寿险资产配置的宏观分析

Macro Analysis of Chinese Life Insurance Asset Allocation

2002年后发达国家寿险资产在长期储蓄中占比下降,而中国寿险资产占长期储蓄比重持续上升。发达国家长期储蓄资产一般能够获得相当于甚至高于名义GDP增长率的回报,而中国长期资产回报率低于名义GDP增长率。低利率是中国宏观经济的基本环境,是中国经济增长模式的基本特征,居民为企业和政府贡献了投资发展的廉价资本,促使中国以投资为主导的GDP快速增长。总体来看,中国固定收益类资产收益率偏低,只是在宏观景气高或者金融监管严的时段,利率会暂时上升到历史价值相对较高水平。中国经济增长质量提高和市场机制更加发挥作用的表现之一,就是促使长期储蓄资金收益率逐步接近甚至超过名义GDP增长率。这需要宏观层面实施多项改革,也需要微观投资主体改进资产配置。

Since 2002 the proportion of life insurance assets in the long-term savings in developed countries has declined,while this indicator in China continues to rise.Long-term savings assets in developed countries generally receive returns equivalent to or even higher than nominal GDP growth rates,while not so in China.Low interest rates are the basic environment for China’s macro economy and are the basic characteristics of China’s economic growth model.Residents have contributed to the rapid growth of China’s investment-led GDP by supplying cheap capital.On the whole,the return on fixed income assets in China is low.The interest rate will only temporarily rise to a relatively high historical value in the period of macro boom or strong financial regulation.One of the performances of China’s improving economic growth and market mechanism is that the long-term savings rate is gradually approaching or even exceeding the nominal GDP growth rate.This requires multiple reforms at the macro level,as well as the need for micro-investors to improve asset allocation.