中国货币政策预期指导的有效性检验

The Effectiveness of Expectations Guidance in China Monetary Policy

预期指导在货币政策传导机制中扮演着重要角色。本文对前瞻性货币政策中预期指导的有效性进行研究,诊断中国央行是否具有预期指导特征,并运用预期指导有效性的量化指标对央行预期指导行为进行检验。实证结果显示,我国货币政策的预期指导具有显著效果。这暗示着预期指导作为提高央行透明度的一种预期管理方式,能够提高货币政策效力并减少市场波动。因此,央行通过加大预期指导的力度和创新指导方式,可以向市场传达更清晰的货币政策信号,以加强前瞻性货币政策效果。

Expectations guidance plays an important role in monetary policy transmission mechanism.This paper examine the effectiveness of expectations guidance in forward-looking monetary policy of China and check whether China central bank has features of expectations guidance.We utilize quantitative measures to test the effectiveness of expectations guidance.Empirical results show that expectations guidance has significant effect in monetary policy.This implies that expectations guidance can enhance monetary policy effectiveness and reduce market volatility.Therefore,the central bank should increase the power of expectations guidance and create new ways of guidance to deliver clearer signal of monetary policy and increase the effect of forward-looking monetary policy.