中国经济结构转型的进展与差距

The Progress and Gap of the Transformation of China’s Economic Structure

本文观察了中国经济结构转型的进展,并与高收入经济体类似发展阶段展开了对比。中国经济在2010—2012年期间跨过了工业化高峰期,此后经济活动正在从制造向服务转移。工业化高峰期以后,投入、生产和产品多个环节共同显示制造业升级总体态势良好,人力资本密集型服务业有更快发展,消费、投资和出口更加平衡。这些结构变化轨迹与高收入经济体类似发展阶段的历史经验高度一致,表明中国仍在迈向更高收入水平的正常轨道上。差距主要表现在第二产业和第三产业就业占比偏低;政府服务占比偏低而金融业增加值占比偏高;私人消费占比偏低,投资占比偏高,尤其是建筑安装类投资过高。弥补这些差距需要推动'从发展到服务'的政府职能转型,进一步提升城市化率。

This paper observes the progress of China’s economic structural transformation and compares it with the similar development stages of high-income economies.China’s economy has crossed the peak period of industrialization from 2010 to 2012,and economic activity is shifting from manufacturing to service.After the peak period of industrialization,many links of input,production and product show that the overall posture of the upgrading of manufacturing industry is good,the human capital intensive service industry has a faster development,and the consumption,investment and export are more balanced.These structural changes are highly consistent with the historical experience of high income economies at similar stages of development,indicating that China is still on the normal track of higher income levels.The gap is mainly manifested in the low employment ratio of the second,third industry;the ratio of the government services to the lower ratio and the higher ratio of the added value of the financial industry;the low proportion of the private consumption and the higher investment ratio,especially the high investment in the construction and installation category.To bridge these gaps,we need to promote the transformation of government functions from development to service,and further enhance the urbanization rate.