信用收缩与债务违约

Credit Crunch and Debt Default

与上一轮债务违约的主因不同,本轮债务违约成因主要表现在资本支出、利息费用和债务净增加。过去二三年,非标业务发展迅猛、股权质押场内场外市场不断壮大,一些企业盲目扩张,胡乱投资,造成债务违约风险大幅提升。本轮信用紧缩既有周期性原因,也有政策性原因。受到影子银行缩水的影响,现在融资市场非常脆弱。信用紧缩对不同类型主体冲击差异性较大:对主营业务盈利较弱、乱投资、依赖外部融资的民企冲击极大;对市场杠杆较高、融资规划较差的主体有一定冲击;对城投平台的冲击是系统的脆弱点,容易引发系统性风险。此外,离岸市场和ABS市场需要加强监管。

Unlike the previous round of debt default,the main causes of this round are net growths of capital expenditure,interest costs and debt).In the past two to three years,non-standard business has grown rapidly,pledge of stock rights in both floor market and OTC market has kept growing.Meanwhile,some enterprises have expanded and invested blindly,resulting in a sharp growth in the risk of debt default.The current credit crunch has both periodic and policy reasons.Affected by the shrinkage of shadow banking,the financing market is very fragile now.The impact of the credit crunch on different types of subjects is quite different.Private enterprises whose main business profitability is weak,who have problem with random investment and dependence on external financing will encounter great impact.Entities with higher market leverage and poor overall financing will encounter certain impact.The impact on the city investment platform is a vulnerable point of the system,which is liable to trigger systemic risk.In addition,the regulations for the offshore market and the ABS market need to be strengthened.