应适时适度调整房地产调控政策

Real Estate Regulation and Control Policy Should be Adjusted Appropriately and Timely

2019年中国经济面临较大下行压力。分析表明,经济运行能否实现'稳中求进'的目标,很大程度上取决于房地产投资增速。如果维持当前的房地产调控政策,房地产投资增速有可能在2019年出现较大下滑,影响宏观经济稳定。宏观决策部门应做好预案,及早采取措施,防患于未然。适时适度调整房地产调控政策,并非只是短期内'稳投资、稳预期'的权宜之计,它也有利于缩小我国房地产市场长期以来一直存在的供需缺口,更有效地抑制房价过快上涨,改善广大民众的福利。作为一个城镇化率不足60%的发展中国家,我国房地产市场还有广阔的发展空间,房地产行业并没有过度投资,未来还有巨大的投资需求。因此,在当前经济下行压力较大的宏观背景下,稳定房地产市场,尤其是稳定房地产投资,并非'饮鸩止渴'或'寅吃卯粮',而是兼顾短期目标与中长期目标,达到'一箭双雕'的效果。

In 2019,China’s economy is facing considerable downward pressure.The analysis shows that whether the economic operation can achieve the goal of'steady progress'depends largely on the growth rate of real estate investment.If the current policy of real estate regulation and control is maintained,the growth rate of real estate investment may decline considerably in2019,affecting macroeconomic stability.The macro decision-making departments should make good plans and take measures as soon as possible so as to prevent the danger before it happens.Timely and moderate adjustment of real estate regulation and control policy is not only an expedient measure of'stable investment and stable expectation'in the short term,but also conducive to narrowing the long-standing gap between supply and demand in China’s real estate market,more effectively restraining the excessive rise of housing prices and improving the welfare of the general public.As a developing country with less than 60%urbanization rate,China’s real estate market still has a broad space for development.The real estate industry has not been overinvested,and there is still a huge investment demand in the future.Therefore,under the macro background of the great downward pressure of the current economy,stabilizing the real estate market,especially the real estate investment,does not mean'Quench a thirst with poison'or'Eat next year’s food',but takes into account both short-term and medium-term goals to achieve the effect of'one kill two birds with one stone'.