建立信用扩张新机制——2018年第四季度宏观政策报告

The Establishment of a New Credit Expansion Mechanism

从2018年四季度宏观经济数据表现来看,我国经济景气程度处于下行通道。就业景气度下降,房地产和汽车两大周期性行业销售增速趋缓,固定资产投资增速放缓,基建投资为主要拖累,出口增速显著回落。鉴于全球经济放缓、国内总需求难有起色,经济面临破位下行风险,未来几个季度PPI低位运行甚至转负,GDP通胀因子有望降低至1%甚至更低水平。从信用表现看,银行表外业务的融资增长大幅下降,新增信贷配置从企业部门大幅转移到政府和住户部门,信用增量出现2014年以来的再次负增长。报告指出,中国自2012年以来的信用扩张总量不过度,结构性问题突出。信用扩张机制亟须破旧立新,需要财政开前门、金融补短板和房地产的供给侧改革。

According to the performance of macroeconomic data in the fourth quarter of 2018,the prosperity degree of China’s economy has been experiencing a downward slide.This descending trend has been manifested on various aspects,including the decline of the employment rate,the slower growth of real estate and automobile industries,as well as fixed asset investment which is largely attributed to the weakened infrastructure investment,and the sharp drop in export growth.In view of the global economic slowdown and difficulty in boosting domestic aggregate demand,China’s economy is facing the risk of falling down below the threshold level.In the next few quarters,PPI would reach low and even negative levels,and GDP deflator is expected to drop down to 1%or even lower.With respect to credit performance,the growth of the off-balance sheet business has fallen sharply;the allocation of new lending has been significantly shifted from the corporate sector to the government and the household sectors;and the credit increment has experienced another negative growth since 2014.The report indicates that although China’s aggregate credit expansion is far from excessive,structural problems have been prominent since 2012.The credit expansion mechanism needs to be reshaped,through a number of measures including relaxation of fiscal policy,improvement of financial weakness and supply-side reform on real estate industry.