我国经济金融形势及风险应对

China’s Economic and Financial Situation and Risk Response Methods

预计2019年我国经济增速继续走低,在下半年企稳。虽然2019年经济形势较为严峻,但政策已转向积极,如果加大政策力度,经济有望下半年回暖。针对2019年中国经济的四大潜在风险点:贸易战升级风险、房地产投资失速风险、地方债风险、资本市场风险,我们提出了针对性的建议来解决短期问题,为了避免重回大水漫灌的老路,长期来看更需要配合着眼于经济结构调整的长期政策,从根本上解决经济发展过程中存在的问题。

It is expected that China’s economic growth will continue to decline in 2019 and stabilize in the second half of the year.Although the economic situation in 2019 is more severe,the policy has turned positive.If the policy is strengthened,the economy is expected to pick up in the second half of the year.In response to the four potential risk points of China’s economy in 2019:the risk of trade war escalation,the risk of real estate investment stall,local debt risk,and capital market risk,we put forward targeted suggestions to solve short-term problems,in order to avoid returning to floods.In the long run,the old road needs to cooperate with the long-term policy focusing on economic restructuring to fundamentally solve the problems in the process of economic development.