天然橡胶供求失衡 价格复苏期待政策刺激——2014年天然橡胶期货市场回顾与2015年展望

Supply Demand Imbalance of NR——2014 NR Futures Market Review and 2015 Outlook

2014年天然橡胶期货市场呈下跌走势。2015年橡胶需求缺乏亮点,汽车销量增速明显放缓,乘用车强商用车弱的格局使轮胎需求下降被进一步放大,轮胎库存过高,美国"双反"将对我国轮胎出口造成巨大阻碍,天然橡胶需求疲软将延续;天然橡胶产量增速放缓或者下降,但总种植面积和开割面积进一步增长,潜在产能巨大;国储局收储计划将使天然橡胶供应量减小近13万t,仍需关注接近保质期的全胶乳是否抛储;国内货币政策的放松和财政政策的加强可能为天然橡胶价格上涨创造零星机会,但天然橡胶价格上行空间有限。预计2015年天然橡胶价格的波动区间为10000~16000元。

In 2014 the trend of NR futures market was downwards and the forecast in 2015 is lack of demand. Major reasons are weak demand of commercial vehicles, excessive tire inventory, and US defensive anti-dumping and countervailing duties imposed on tires imported from China. The China. The total volume increase of NR is slowing down. However, the planting and harvest area is increasing and the production capacity is quite large. Meanwhile, the purchasing and storage plan of Reserve Bureau of China will reduce the supply by nearly 130000 t. In the short term, limited price increase is still expected due to possible sell-off the goods upon expiration, loosening of monetary policy and strengthening of fi scal policy. In 2015, the forecast price range of NR is from 10000 to 16000 Yuan.