2015—2016年中国宏观经济预测与分析

China's Economic Outlook in 2015-2016: Forecast and Analysis

"中国季度宏观经济模型(CQMM)"课题组于2015年3月1日在北京举行中国季度宏观经济模型第十八次预测发布。报告显示,2015年中国经济虽然仍面临着下行压力,但预计全年GDP将增长7.14%;通货膨胀率继续低位下行,CPI将上涨1.74%。课题组模拟了调整直接税与间接税比例的宏观经济效应。模拟结果显示,调整税制结构,尤其是在降低间接税比重的同时降低国民经济总税负,将有力地促进投资,扩大消费,提高经济增长率。根据预测及政策模拟结果,建议通过"降低间接税比重,提高直接税比重"这一加减组合法来降低国民经济总税负,激发社会经济活力,促进市场主体自主创新,提高资源利用效率,再造增长潜力。

The project team of'China's Quarterly Macroeconomic Model( CQMM) 'held the 18 thCQMM press conference on China's economic outlook in Beijing on March 1,2015. CQMM has forecast that pressure still exists that may slow down China's economy in 2015,however,there is likely to be a 7. 14% increase of GDP growth in 2015,and that CPI in 2015 is expected to rise by 1. 74% whereas inflation rate will continue to descend slightly throughout 2015. Our team also conducted a policy simulation to identify the macroeconomic effects of adjusting the ratio between direct and indirect taxes. The results show that adjusting tax structure will promote investment,boost consumption and speed up economic growth,especially when the proportion of indirect tax and the total tax burden of national economy are simultaneously reduced. According to our forecasts and policy simulation results,it is suggested that it is necessary to reduce total tax burden of national economy via a combination method called 'Reducing the proportion of indirect taxes and increasing the proportion of direct taxes'. Such institutional tax reduction will help to stimulate socio-economic vitality,promote market innovation,enhance resource efficiency and reengineer growth potential.