高技术产业与经济增长关系的动态演变研究

Research on dynamic evolution of the relationship between high-tech industries and economic growth based on Feder model

高技术产业与经济增长的动态关系是研究经济发展是否健康的重要途径.基于1995~2016年的GDP、全国固定资产投资、全国就业人数、高技术产业主营业收入四个指标,运用菲德思想构建高技术产业与经济增长关系的变参数模型.实证结果表明:所选取时间序列内高技术产业对经济增长的贡献系数为正,说明高技术产业在长时间内促进经济的增长,但是贡献系数并没有出现逐年增长或逐年下降的现象,而是随着时间的增长呈现一定的波动,按照下降或上升的趋势,可以将贡献系数分为2个阶段:第1阶段1996~2004年呈下滑趋势,且前4年递减速度较快;第2阶段2005~2016年出现一定的波动但总体处于上升趋势,但增长幅度较慢;综合的结果显示高技术产业对经济增长的正作用逐渐趋于平稳状态,因此高技术产业的发展越来越有利于经济的健康增长.

The dynamic evolution of the relationship between high-tech industries and economic growth is an important way to study the healthy development of the economy.Based on the five indicators of GDP,fixed asset investment,national employment,and high-tech industry main operating income from 1995 to 2016,this paper used Feider’s thought to construct a variable parameter model of the relationship between high-tech industry and economic growth.The empirical analysis showed that the contribution coefficient of high-tech industry to economic growth in the selected time series was positive,indicating that the high-tech industry promotes economic growth for a long time,but the coefficient did not appear to increase or decrease year by year,but the growth of time showed a certain fluctuation.According to the trend of decline or rise,the coefficient could be classified into two stages:the first stage showed a downward trend from 1996 to 2004,and the first four years declined faster;the second stage showed the line trend was growing in 2005-2016,but the growth rate was slow.The results showed that the positive effect of high-tech industries on economic growth was stabilizing gradually,so the development of high-tech industries was conducive to healthy economic growth.