基于DEM的贵州山区气温和降水推算方法研究

A DEM-Based Method for Calculating Temperature and Precipitation in the Mountainous Regions of Guizhou

选取贵州省19个气象站50a(1960-2009年)的气温、降水资料,并以26.876°N为界(威宁测站纬度)将贵州分为南北两个区域——南区和北区,同时以1km×1km的DEM数据为基础,结合多元回归等方法,分区域建立基于纬度、归一化的海拔和坡向、以及坡度因子的气温和降水推算模型,由此在其选定区域进行气候要素小网格推算.结果表明:地理因子中,纬度因子对温度和降水的贡献最大;南区温度模型相关显著,但降水模型没通过检验;而北区温度和降水模型效果都很好;在推算区域中,温度,降水分布存在纬向差异.

The data about temperature and precipitation recorded at 19 meteorological stations in Guizhou Province during the period from 1960 to 2009is chosen,and Guizhou Province is divided into two regionsSouth Area and North Area-by the latitude 26.876°N of Weining Station.Meanwhile,the geographic factors such as latitude,normalized altitude,normalized slope and aspect are analyzed in order to build the prediction models between temperature and precipitation in each region based on DEM(digital elevation model)in 1km spatial resolution and polynomial regression.Finally,the refined calculation of climate elements is carried out in one particular area of each region.The results show that of the geographical factors studied,latitude contributes most to temperature and precipitation,that the temperature model in South Area is correlatively significant,but the precipitation model fails to pass the statistical test,that the effects of temperature and precipitation models in North Area are both relatively favorable,and that zonal difference exists in the distribution of temperature and precipitation of the calculated area.