基于GM(1,1)模型的土地生态安全动态分析与预测——以安徽省池州市为例

Dynamic Analysis and Prediction of Land Ecological Security Based on GM(1,1)Model——A Case Study of Chizhou,Anhui

基于2001-2011年池州市土地生态安全的相关数据,从压力、状态和响应3个方面构建池州市土地生态安全评价指标体系,运用GM(1,1)模型对2012-2020年池州市土地生态安全演变趋势进行预测,并结合土地生态安全评价标准对池州2001-2020年池州市土地生态安全状况进行了动态分析,结果表明:1 GM(1,1)模型有较高的模拟精度,能够较好地预测2012-2020年池州市土地生态安全各子系统的发展趋势.2就土地生态各子系统而言,呈现出土地生态系统压力上升、状态好转、生态环境的人文响应不断加强的变化特征;总体而言2001-2020年池州市土地生态安全水平呈上升趋势,土地生态安全综合指数由2001年的0.765 9增加到2020年的0.860 8,安全等级由良好级上升到安全级.3影响池州市土地生态安全的主要因素有人均耕地面积、人口密度、人口自然增长率、城镇化水平、水土协调度、农业机械化水平、自然保护区面积比重等,这些因素是今后调控重点.

An early‐warning index system of land ecological security for Chizhou ,Anhui is constructed based on the city's related data of land ecological security :pressure ,state and response .T hen the GM (1 , 1) model is used to make a prediction for the development trend of its land ecological security in 2012 -2020 ,and at last an analysis is made of the land ecological security of the city from 2001 to 2020 according to the evaluation standards .The results are shown as follows .(1) The GM (1 ,1) model has a relatively high simulation accuracy ,and can well predict the development trends of the local land ecological security system in 2012-2020 .(2) In terms of each subsystem of land ecology ,the changes in the land ecological system are characterized by a rising pressure ,a better state and a continuously strengthening human re‐sponse .Overall ,in 2001-2020 ,the land ecological security degree of Chizhou show s an obvious grow th trend ,land ecological security composite index will increase from 0.765 9 in 2001 to 0.860 8 in 2020 ,and the security level will rise from Level“Good”to Level“Safe” .(3) The main factors that influence the land ecological security of Chizhou include per capita arable land ,population density ,natural grow th rate of population ,urbanization level ,soil‐water coordination degree ,agricultural mechanization degree and the proportion of nature reserves ,which will be the focus of land ecological security regulation in the future . Therefore ,the dynamic analysis and prediction of land ecological security in Chizhou have a great theoreti‐cal and practical significance .