临汾市近48年气候变化规律研究

The Study of Variational Law to the Climate at Linfen Station

本文就临汾市近48年来(1954年—2001年)的气温、降水进行了认真、细致的诊断分析.结果表明:气温呈非连续性的增暖趋势,线性变化率:年平均气温为0.25.(10a)-1,年平均最高气温线性变化率为0.1℃.(10a)-1,年平均最低气温线性变化率为0.45℃.(10a)-1.从变化规律分析,60年代较50年代有所增暖,60年代至80年代中期变化不明显.而从1989年以后,呈连续性增暖趋势.到1999年出现了1954年以来的最暖年,年平均气温14.1℃,究其变化原因,可能与90年代频繁发生的厄尔尼诺及城市热岛效应有关.降水变化存在着明显的年代际变化规律,平均每6年—8年为一周期,降水量从50年代至90年代呈连续性的递减趋势,线性变化率为-21.9mm(10a)-1,90年代较50年代降水量减少了83.4mm.

Based on the data of air temperature and precipitation at Linfen station during 1954-2001,we have done diagreostic analysis in real earnest.The result show that the air temperature is increasing intermittently.The linear variety rate of air temperature's annual averge is 0.25℃ every ten years.From 1950s to 1990s, the air temperature's annual averge heightened about 1.0℃. The linear variety rate of the max air temperature's annual averge is 0.1℃ every ten years. From 1950s to 1990s, the max air temperature's annual averge heighened 1.8℃.As for variational law, the air temperature in the 1960s is higher than that in the 1950s. .From 1960s to the middle of 1980s,the variety of the air temperature isn't obvious.After 1989, the air temperature indicates steadly increasing.Since 1954, it appears the highest in 1999.The air temperature's annual averge is 14.1℃.The cause of the variety is probably related to the ENSO that have taken place frequently in the 1990s and the city's hot island domino offect.The variety of precipitation exist obviously variational law between years.Per cycle is 6years-8 years. .From 1950s to 1990s, the precipitation is continuously decreased. The linear variety rate of the precipitation is -21.9mm every ten years. From 1950s to 1990s ,the precipitation has decreased 83.4mm.