中国向“一带一路”国家产业转移的规模测算及影响机制研究

On the Scale Measurement and Influence Mechanism of China’s Industrial Transfer to the Countries Along the “Belt and Road”

促进中国与"一带一路"国家间的产业转移是实现我国与沿线国家优势互补、资源共享的重要途径。结果表明,中国向"一带一路"国家产业转移呈现规模大、差异大和种类多等特点;中国产业的全球价值链地位以及"一带一路"沿线国家的经济发展水平、劳动力数量、基础设施、技术水平、政局稳定性等对中国的产业转移具有显著的正影响,而地理距离和资源禀赋对产业转移的影响显著为负。促进中国与"一带一路"国家间产业转移,一方面要提升中国产业的全球价值链地位以及加强中国与"一带一路"沿线国家的互联互通,另一方面要科学识别与防范产业转移过程中的政治风险和"资源诅咒"风险。

Promoting the industrial transfer between China and the countries along the 'Belt and Road' is an important way to realize the complementary advantages and resource sharing between China and the countries along the 'Belt and Road'. Results show that China’s industrial transfer to the countries along the 'Belt and Road' presents the following three characteristics,i.e. large scale of transfer,lots of countries and industry differences,and multiple industry types. Both China’s industrial value chain status and the economic development level,labor force scale,infrastructure,technology level,and political stability of the countries along the 'Belt and Road' have significantly positive effects on China’s industrial transfer,while the geographical distance and resource endowment have significantly negative effects on it. To promote industrial transfer between China and the countries along the 'Belt and Road',we shall,on the one hand,enhance the status of China’s global value chain and strengthen the interconnection between China and the countries along the 'Belt and Road'. On the other hand,we shall scientifically identify and guard against the political risks as well as the risks of 'resource curse' in the course of industrial transfer.