危险货物道路运输风险概率模型及应用

A Risk Probability Model for Road Transportation of Hazardous Materials and Its Application

针对危险货物道路运输风险概率评估方法的不足,在运用事故致因理论深入分析危险货物道路运输事故机理及其风险影响因素的基础上,提出了一种新的危险货物道路运输风险概率评估模型,给出了模型的数学计算公式及各参数确定的方法.该模型在危险货物道路运输风险概率一般方法计算的基础上,从事前预防和事中行驶2个方面,将企业的安全管理水平、道路条件、气象条件、交通流量、行驶时段及危险货物特性等因子引入模型中作为修正系数,使模型更趋实际和完整.实例应用表明,该模型能很好的评估危险货物道路运输风险概率,客观的反映危险货物道路运输风险大小实际状况,避免了风险概率评估结果过高或过低的问题,并为风险概率的降低提供参考和决策依据.

Considering the deficiencies of current probability models for hazmat road transportation,a novel risk probability model for hazmat road transportation wais presented,based on a deep analysis of accident mechanism for hazmat road transportation by using accident causation theories. This model,with the common risk probability algorithm as the basis and from the two aspects of accident prevention and driving process,was taken enterprises’ safety management level,road condition,meteorological condition,traffic flow,driving span of time and property of hazmat as the correction factors of risk probability,which made the model more practicable and complete.Finally,a case study was illustrated,which shows that this model correctly assess the risk probability of hazmat road transportation and effectively avoid over-assessing or de-assessing.